Delphi Technique

What is The Delphi Technique?

The major issue in forecasting is the possibility of biased conclusions. This is the case mostly when it comes to complex topics that need strategic solutions. For this, having the expertise of a knowledgeable panel is beneficial.

The Delphi technique rules out the potential biases, inaccuracies, and conflicts that can happen during a research process by providing diverse perspectives. This helps in a fruitful decision-making process across industries.

But what exactly is this method?

Delphi Technique: A Definition

Delphi Technique is a systematic forecasting and communication method developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. It is also called Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE) and is structured around the insights and opinions of a panel of experts.

The Delphi method involves drawing consensus on a specific topic from a strategically selected group of individuals. The process concerns distributing, collecting, and summarizing questionnaires, where the members’ identities are anonymous. This ensures sample representativeness.

It is applied in various fields for forecasting trends, strategy making, research, and environmental planning.

Major Components of the Delphi Technique

There are three major components: the Panel of experts, Questionnaires, and the Facilitator.

Panel of Experts

This includes a set of 5-10 individuals selected based on their knowledge of the given topic. (The number of participants can vary depending on the study design) The identities of these experts are kept anonymous throughout the process until the completion of the final report.

These members complete multiple rounds of questionnaires, followed by a controlled feedback mechanism. Diversity is also maintained while selecting the panel to obtain different perspectives.

Questionnaires

Questionnaires are the primary tool for collecting opinions and insights from the expert panel. They have a clear purpose and a strict structure. The questionnaires can include open-ended questions to gather qualitative feedback and close-ended ones for quantitative data.

Experts have to complete multiple rounds of these questionnaires based on the responses from the previous round. This is called controlled feedback. The process helps in arriving at a collective agreement or consensus.

It is paramount to keep the expert’s identity safe. SurveySparrow can help with this. The platform allows you to create anonymous questionnaires, distribute them through multiple channels, and collect feedback.

Once that’s done, you can make response summaries, visualize the data on a dashboard, and analyze the results with advanced tools!
(We will talk about how the platform can come in handy throughout the process in a bit)

Facilitator

A facilitator manages the entire process so that the events progress smoothly. Their responsibility includes sending out the questionnaires and instructions to the panel. Since face-to-face contact is not required, they act as a medium between the panelists. Their role is crucial in guiding the experts and then reaching a consensus on the topic of interest.

Importance of Delphi Technique

The method helps organizations address complex issues, tackle challenges, and make informed decisions based on the insights.

1. Rich Insights

Since the members have detailed knowledge of the subject matter, you get expert opinions and insights. This is important because specialized knowledge helps attain diverse perspectives, especially in complex cases.

2. Unbiased Feedback

Anonymity promotes honest and detailed feedback. Since there is no influence of peer pressure or bias, the experts can lay out their opinions without the fear of repercussions. This leads to reliable and accurate data to use to make objective decisions.

3. Risk Assessment and Management

By gaining clear insights, you can foresee risks and tackle them efficiently. The method helps organizations to carefully evaluate the possible issues and take appropriate strategies to mitigate them. This is particularly crucial for entities from complex or high-stakes environments.

4. Builds Consensus

As mentioned above, the method involves multiple questionnaires in a controlled environment. This will lead to a harmonious decision-making process and a mix of various perspectives.

Delphi Technique: The Process

Here are the key steps involved:

 

1. Set Your Objectives

It is important to start clearly and focus on what questions or topics you need expert input on. Start by defining the issues you want to explore and then set parameters for your study. This definition must include the entirety of the process, from the selection of experts to the final report.

Now, let’s say a company decides to launch a product in the wearable technology sector. They want to use the Delphi Technique to get expert opinions on the features that will do well in the market. The first step is to find out about the top features that are prerequisites for success in the sector.

Next comes the scope based on existing technologies. Then frame questions- how is the user experience? How can the design contribute to the overall experience? Once the objectives are sorted, make a roadmap for smooth progression.

2. Choose The Panelists

The next step is to select a list of panelists with relevant knowledge and expertise. When choosing members, it is important to consider diversity and inclusivity.

The facilitator must also maintain integrity and confidentiality. Each member needs to keep personal biases and interests aside.

3. Roll out the Questionnaires

Questionnaires help collect the participants’ opinions and thoughts. It is important to consider the design before you begin. They can be structured, semi-structured, or even entirely open-ended.

Based on this, you have to divide the types of questions for subsequent rounds. Usually, the first round includes more open-ended questions to kickstart the process. This allows the experts to give genuine feedback on the topic.

The data collection becomes nuanced in further rounds and focuses on specific aspects and metrics. The facilitator carries out this process. Also, the questionnaires and clear instructions will be delivered to the panel promptly.

4. Detailed Analysis

Next, the facilitator collects the responses to explore the insights. This analysis continues for each round of questionnaires.

First, common themes and patterns are analyzed. This is done to pick out the most important aspects of the responses that need immediate attention.

Then, the focus will be on the areas where they agree and disagree. This is important to eliminate inaccurate summaries by focusing on just one aspect. Further, an anonymized summary is provided to the panelists.

This is an iterative process until they reach a consensus. Because the questionnaires have evolved, multiple cycles need to be analyzed.

5. Build Harmony

This recurring process should ultimately lead to a consensus, as the primary goal of the Delphi technique is to achieve this. The experts’ well-thought-out ideas combine to produce a strategic decision.

The recurring process and controlled feedback eliminate any possibility of bias. The facilitator summarizes the responses and harmonizes the panelists’ agreements and disagreements.

Now, the level of consensus is measured using the mean or median. Different methods, including interquartile range or standard deviation, are used to calculate the acceptable level of agreement.

6. Presenting the Report

Once the analysis is complete and the study has concluded, the facilitator must present a detailed report that includes the consensus results, quantitative data, methodological details, and implications.

It must also detail the number of rounds conducted, the changes in the questions, and the research outcome. These details must be presented clearly without omitting even the most nuanced detail.

Lastly, the collective results are presented to the panelists. This feedback looping is necessary to maintain transparency throughout the process.

Applications of The Method

The Delphi technique is used in instances where a group consensus is mandatory. This includes:

Project Management

The method is used for various purposes, such as decision-making, risk assessment, and scope management. It also helps stakeholders understand the scope of a specific project. By utilizing the method, teams can forecast failures and take necessary measures to prevent them.

Healthcare Industry

It can help in quality indicator development. The insights can be used to define, select, and validate indicators vital to maintaining quality in the healthcare industry. They are also important in creating guidelines to safeguard privacy.

Technology

With expert opinion and trend analysis, organizations can track technological advancements. These insights pave the way to improved and advanced strategies to adapt to new industry changes. They can also show gaps in the existing market to build innovative products that stand out.

Market Research

You can get expert inputs on market size, growth potential, and competitive landscape. This can give you a comprehensive understanding of customer behavior. Also, the iterative feedback methods can provide an idea of the market shift and trend analysis.

Challenges in Conducting the Delphi Technique

Though the method has its advantages, there are a few things you need to consider.

Interaction Requires Commitment

Keeping the panelists engaged might be challenging. This is because there are multiple rounds of questionnaires in a controlled environment with repetitive questions.
Moreover, if any of the experts stop responding, it can lead to inaccurate conclusions, which will tamper with the quality of the results.

Lack of Live Interaction

Since the technique does not require direct contact with the participants, it is easy for the events to be monotonous. A live interaction could open a discussion of opinions and groundbreaking ideas.

Slow Response Time

Each individual is accustomed to a different pace. It is difficult to align everyone’s time and reach a consensus! Further, multiple rounds take a lot of time. The method is not useful in cases where immediate solutions are required.

Subjective Responses

Human beings tend to associate emotions with ideas. So, some bias or personal opinions might show up in the responses. Differentiating useful information from infiltrated information will take a lot of work.

SurveySparrow to Conduct Delphi Technique

Surveysparrow’s data collection tool can help you with the entire process.

Create Engaging Questionnaires

You can create engaging questionnaires, forms, and surveys for research. There are many question types, including open-ended ones, Likert scale, rating scale, and more!
The drag-and-drop builder makes creation easy, offering multiple file types and customization options. With this creative tool, keeping the panelists engaged is no longer an issue!

Recurring Feedback

The recurring survey feature helps you streamline the iterative processes. Schedule the questionnaires or enable them to be throttled in time. This allows you to automate repetitive tasks while simultaneously taking the hard work out! You can also nudge the participants with timely notifications so there is no delay.

Anonymous Responses

The built-in anonymity is an add-on. While there are options to enable tracking of IP addresses and the location of the participants, you can easily disable them to protect their privacy. This feature will also help in cases where there are open-ended questions. The panelists can openly share their thoughts without peer pressure.

Multiple Sharing Options

Once the questionnaires are created, the facilitators can share them via an email embed or generate a URL and share the link via SMS, WhatsApp, or any social media platform.

Advanced Analytics and Reporting

Once the responses start flowing in, use the analytics tools to dissect and decode them. You have sentiment analysis and response summaries.

If your process lasts longer than a few months, you can use Cognivue to find root cause analysis, hidden insights, and topic shifts to understand the patterns. Visualize the data on the executive dashboard and make informed decisions!

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